Tuesday, May 29, 2007

The Stockmarket; A Scam?

For years the Dow barely moved after the stock market Crash of '29. For instance in 1952 the Dow was at 500. The expansion began August 1982 when the Dow gained 38.81 points in one day to reach 831.14, which heralded in the boom of the '80s. By January '87 the Dow breaks 2000; July '87 it reaches 2510.04. In October '87 Black Monday, when the Dow falls 508 points; but by January '90 the Dow reaches 2810.15 and April '91 it reaches 3004.46: May '93 it reaches 3500.03; February '95 the Dow reaches 4003.37; March 16, 1999 it reaches 10,000 points and by March 29, 1999 it exceeds10,000. Why after years of holding below 1,000 it climbs to now over 13,400?
Pension plans, IRAs, 401k plans are the reason, especially 401k plans. With all that money looking for investments it is no wonder stocks, bonds, and money markets are doing well. For proof look at 401k facts.
Four 0 Ones Kays began about 1978 and in 1990 $ .385 trillion were in 401ks (19.5 million participants); 1996, $ 1.061 trillion; 1997, $ 1.264 trillion; 1998, $ 1.459 trillion; 1999, $1.715 trillion; 2000, $ 1.712 trillion.
In 1990 there were about 19 million 401k participants and by 1999 39.3 million. 401ks represent 15% of retirement totals (2001), which represent $11.5 trillion in retirement assets (as of 2001).
The Big Question here is; "Do stocks represent "real value"? Where there are big bucks to be made there are always sharks looking to gobble up what ever is in the water--in this case investments. Remember the Crash of '29 and the Savings and Loan scandal?
As in all "frenzies" (and stock market booms are frenzies) good money chases bad indiscriminately and with so much money being invested by ordinary people there is a real danger for disaster. I'm reminded what happened to the German people during the 1920 and 1930s when their pensions went down the drain.
Personally I think the Stock Market is way over-inflated and is ripe for a real crunch.

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