Saturday, April 14, 2007

Iraq--Winning The War

The definition of "win" still hasn't been decided on yet we are still in Iraq trying to force a definition. A real win is not possible now that Iraq has some say in what goes on. To fight against an insurgency, civil strife, a guerrilla war is only possible if there is complete control over the populace. That is not the case now. The Iraqis have only limited control on the ground and the U.S. is limited in what it can do for it has to "respect" the government of Iraq's sovereignty.

The Iraqis themselves cannot be trusted because of infiltration of hostile elements in government, police, and the Iraqi military. Then you have all the outside influences--such as Syria, Iran, and others we wont mention. Then there is the historical context of insurgencies--the Vietnamese resisted outsiders for a thousand years to obtain their sovereignty.

We will have to leave at some point--win or not.

I am reminded of Vietnam--the same rhetoric is being used that was said then. Arguments about the dire consequences if we left then and now. The only difference between then and now is that we don't use Agent Orange--now it is "smart bombs".

We still don't understand how to fight guerrilla wars. We look to Generals for answers. They "know" how guerrilla wars have been fought in the past, but what you need is a guerrilla fighter to fight guerrillas. Someone who can think out of the box and anticipate where future threats will materialize from. Someone who is as secretive and as ruthless as the enemy, and above all someone who has the contacts and resources that can counter enemy forces. A tall order.