Oil Alternatives

Last Sunday I watched Larry King's show, which had Robert Redford, CEO of Chevron OReilly, and several others all talking about oil and the need to go to alternatives. What was the most interesting was what wasn't being said. That the U.S. wont change over to alternatives, any significant way, until the present energy companies figure out how to monopolize the energy industry and how to eke out more profits than is possible at the moment. OReilly was still making the case for drilling in environmentally fragile areas.
The problem with alternatives is the little guy can get into the business--take ethanol for instance. Weren't most of our forefathers bootleggers? Anyone with access to corn or barley, a little sugar, and yeast, can forment up a batch of alcohol in a few days. Same with bio or waste oil diesel. Most gasoline cars can be converted to ethanol in a few hours and a few hundreds of dollars. Diesel cars and trucks need no modification. As far as electricity goes solar and wind are options as well. Roof tops are potential energy producers.
The reason we aren't heading toward self-sufficiency is the strangle hold on the subject by the environmentalists and the capitalists. The move towards alternative energy is driven, not by environmental or economic concerns, but by the fact that consumption has gotten so great that we just can't produce enough to keep pace with it. That means in time (relatively soon) recessions and even depressions--or as I keep saying--The Big Crunch!
The Big Crunch! What is that? Think of the 1973 oil shortage compounded three or four fold. High prices, long long gas lines, chaos, people out of work, people unable to get to work, brown and black outs of electricity, interruptions in communications, and I could go on for quite some time--the reader should get the message. The problem with the Big Crunch is there is no reprieve or going back--it is permanent and gets worse as time goes on. Consumption is necessary to maintaining a civilization built on technology. The only way out of it is by going back in time to a period of less technology--mediaeval times, or the stoneage maybe? Our choice?
I have done some number crunching with my computer and calculate that we have about 30 years to total crunch time, zero produceable oil--if the oil companies have been truthful with their reserve numbers. You can figure it out with a calculator--here's how. There are about 1 trillion barrels of oil in reserves in the world--a conservative figure (the U.S. has 21 billion barrels left). The world uses up 24 billion barrels each year on average (the U.S. uses 7 billion). For each 9 barrels used we discover and add 1 barrel to the reserve figure (that ratio increases in time to 1:10, 1:11 etc.). Our consumption increases yearly by 1 1/2 percent. If you divide 24 billion (plus 1.5 % of 24 billion) by nine and add that to 1 trillion, minus the 24 billion (to increase the reserve figure) and keep cycling till the reserves are zero, you should come up with about 35 cycles or years. The only problem with that, as far as we are concerned, is that there is a point where civilization can no longer flourish because consumption exceeds production by some margin; when the Big Crunch happens. I figure that out to be when production falls short 25% of needed consumption. We waste a lot so we could tighten our belts some without hurting our economy and way of life too badly, but there is a point where things stop running or operating.
The argument continually being made by the oil companies and our legislators is that there is plenty of oil around and in the ground. There is, but it is economical not feasible to retrieve much of it. There is some point where the average person can't afford to buy energy. They'll try, but costs of energy drive up other prices as well--food, clothing, raw materials, building materials, etc.
Anyway it is time to seriously think about developing oil alternatives. Waiting is risky. We barely have the resources now to invest in infrastructure let alone later when it is likely the money wont be there to do so.