Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Oil--The Monster Under the Bed?

Despite our economic downturn the economic "experts" still talk of a possible recession as being part of a normal economic circumstance--but what if it isn't, that possibly it is something relatively new? Humans tend to think in linear terms--straight line upward trends; or something happened in the past it will happen a similar way in the future. There are, however, non-linear events that raise their ugly heads--we see it all the time in die-offs, asteroids causing extinctions, over grazing, over consumption of natural resources. There are no turning back the clock on these kinds of events and all too often the results were predictable; as they are now. Oil is a dwindling resource from which there is no turning back the clock possible.
If there was an abundance of oil from many sources around the world there would be no $100 per barrel oil, or $3 plus per gallon gasoline. These prices are not going down in the long term but up!
And soon, sometime in the future, it will become harder to come by and much more expensive. A Recession would be the least of our worries.
We are beginning to see just the tip of the iceberg, exacerbated by institutional greed. I've written before that where there is money stashed someone will find a way to "steal" it--and they did. Legislatures always create loopholes for the crooks to wiggle the money through.
Pre-WWII Germany comes to mind, when everyone's pensions plans disappeared due to run-a-way inflation and the governments collapse. I look at all of those 401K plans people have and think, "What a great opportunity for someone to make a killing on".
So far inflation hasn't raised its ugly head--mostly because the Corporations have kept wages low and have chosen to import rather than manufacture goods. My rule is: there are no inexpensive goods, you just pay the price later; usually in a more painful way.
But back to oil, or should say, the lack of it. If we were to discover an asteroid on a trajectory that would impact Earth sometime in the near future the whole world would join in an effort to avoid it. We all are in peril of something just as dangerous--running out of energy, mostly represented by the term oil. Our oil production is now peaking. We've reached our maximum production capacity worldwide. Most oil reserves are on the negative side of the production curve; i.e. they have reached maximum production capacity and are now producing less and less and having to resort to steam or water injection in order to force oil out. Production costs are going up at the same time that production is lagging. In a nutshell this means that the price of oil is going to skyrocket at the same time it becomes more scarce. That means less goods, higher prices, and lost jobs. All the while Bush fiddles while Washington burns.
What needs to be done is that our leaders clearly define the problem and propose a clear cut strategy, with a time table, that would begin to solve the problem. So far our leaders have been more concerned about their friends losing money or power than the over all good of the people and the nation. Nothing has been done about limiting consumption of gasoline and diesel. Very little has been done on alternatives, such as bio-diesel and ethanol, or making gasoline out of coal. Nothing has been done to illuminate the problem. Everyone is sitting on their hands waiting for the problem to become critical before it is noticed. This is everyones problem, worldwide. The famines now taking place are nothing compared to those coming if something isn't fairly soon. The stampede for energy in the future will be disastrous. Nothing will be able to stand in its way. The mighty will trod all over the weak, the Four Horsemen will ride supreme.

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