Is There Such A Thing As Return To Normal?

Home foreclosures, rising gasoline prices, inflation, dropping value of the dollar; all are expected to return to some semblance of normalcy in the not so distant future. Prices on everything go up and up as a normal thing (yet the worker's wage keeps going down). Everyone is stoically reacting to what is happening and philosophically resigned to the situation becoming worse; though deep down everyone expects some relief after a period of "recession". Things will turn around in other words and get better. Things, however, could get worse and the trends indicate that they will. Some will argue that the system still works fairly well, so why do anything that may rock the boat. We find ourselves in a Catch-22 situation. If we conserve, stop buying things, speak out for change we run the risk of slowing down our economy; which in turn puts people out of work, which slows down the economy causing a "recession". However, if we don't conserve and put a brake on spending we deplete our resources further, which in turn will drive up prices. However, consumption continues to increase and energy resources are being depleted at an alarming rate and will ultimately petroleum will become scarce soon means that economists, politicians, and intellectuals can throw away their books--books that provide them with "crystal ball" answers to situations similar to those that have occurred in the past.
The "problem" will be world wide. Without oil, civilization world-wide as we know it today will cease to be. People fail to realize that a shortage of oil is enough to cause a total depletion of oil. A twenty-five percentage shortfall could start a downward spiral towards a total collapse of our energy infrastructure. Shortages could mean chaos in the form of riots, destruction of facilities, interrupted oil deliveries, and a breakdown of local government services.
People obsess about the prices of energy; gasoline at $3.61 a gallon for instance. Some are paying $4.00 for regular and next year gasoline will likely be $5.00 a gallon and even more. It is not the price so much that upsets people, it is the rate at which the price rises that shocks people. It takes time to adjust to changes. A budget is hard to figure when prices go up daily. What if the price of gasoline or diesel rose overnight to $10 or $15 a gallon? There would be riots, and maybe a lynching or two. What if gasoline were rationed at 10 gallons a week? These are examples of events which may occur before an acute permanent shortage happens.
An acute shortage is likely to occur in a short period of time. Everyone expects the signs of depletion to occur over a long period of time; gasoline deliveries to gas stations being late, less gasoline being delivered, small towns or hamlets receiving less and less and some not at all. There will be much government and corporate propaganda about increasing production and other remedies to relieve shortages and high prices. These may be some the real signs of depletion, but it may occur quite differently, for it is a good example of chaos.
There may be announcements by Saudi Arabia, for instance, that supply demands cannot be met--a declaration that peak oil had been reached some time in the past and that demand was now exceeding production (by 25% say). This announcement could possibly create disruption and chaos in itself. The oil market would explode. Talk about high oil prices! No one could predict accurately what would happen at this point and that is the worry.
We are now at or near peak oil production. Saudi Arabia is the only oil producer that can increase production to meet demand by consumers. But that may soon change. Uncertainty has its own dangers and everyone is betting that oil soon will become scarcer in the near future; that is why oil now is near $120 a barrel and why it will go even higher later on this year. Some governmental meddling could bring it down for a spell but the trend is now set for much much higher prices. Anyway, the U.S. and the World Economy is not going back to normalcy: this "near Recession" may become the norm for no real remedies are being seriously considered.
Real considerations? We have 200 years supply of coal: at present consumption figures. If we were to convert coal to gasoline 200 years that would drop to about 70 years supply. Long enough to find other alternatives. However, there is not enough money in it, so it is not likely to happen in the near future. The U.S. would have to declare a "National Emergency", in order to get things rolling--new refineries, new technologies etc. However, by the time the government reacts it will be too late to do anything. Besides there are too many politicians feeding at the "oil trough" for anything to be done about alternative energy.
Its about time for some hard objective scrutiny about energy; not only by the U.S. but by the world, for when it comes to energy we are all vulnerable.