Thursday, December 14, 2006

Iraq--What A Mess!

Now that the Iraq Commission turned in its recommendations--recommendations that went against George's common theme of "stay the course"--the Administration will burn the midnight oil figuring out how to change the rhetoric and still be able to "stay the course". In other words use propaganda to be able to "stay the course" only have people believe that he is changing course. Already "stay the course" has become "a way forward"; with the goal being the same and the strategy really being the same, only different. If all this makes sense to anyone they have succumbed to the Administrations propaganda already, or all along.
The unfortunate fact about Iraq is no one can possibly win or have a victory. At least not in the short term--say within five to ten years. Any attempt by the U.S. to seek a "win" in Iraq will result in much more bloodshed and destruction--that is inevitable. There is too much at stake in Iraq for anyone to back away from. In the U.S.'s case it is George Bush's ego and Presidential legacy: the Sunnis and Shias are fighting for control of Iraq's assets and political and religious control: the Kurds the same plus autonomy. On top of it all small groups have their own power base to protect; budding tyrannies at work. The only solution is to pick a solution that works for and against all; like knocking two or more heads together to gain some sort of reality.
Unfortunately in our haste to make a propaganda coup, by creating a democracy in Iraq, we did so at the expense of security. Without security democracy can not flourish and giving sovereignty to a democracy that is dis functional ties our hands to the extent we cannot establish security. A Catch 22 situation.
Now the retired Generals are calling for a withdrawal, saying Iraq is unwinable. That means that the Sunni States in the region will have to step in and there goes our oil up in smoke. A little scary: a reason to pause and think of the consequences; by everyone involved. Some may rub their hands in glee, but I'm sure the majority are biting nails--or should be.
The threat by the Saudis might bring some rationality to the situation. A united threat, from Syria, Jordan, and the Saudis might cause some to back off from trying to make the situation worse. A united Sunni front, backed by the U.S., could bring the conflict to a halt, and save face for everyone.